MLB picks

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · data built 2:07 AM CT
How picks are chosen. Kalshi moneylines, as on the MLB page's "Model Suggests": any side where the model's win probability beats Kalshi's de-vigged price. 4+ pts is a pick, below that a lean. Postseason games; lineups are projected until posted, so re-run closer to first pitch. Full MLB page: mlb-slate-7u0.pages.dev.
Most confident = edge of 4c+ vs Kalshi.

Suggested bets

Time (CT)BetKalshiModel fairEdge
12:00 PM
Chicago White Sox ML · Moneyline Most confident
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians · ALDS 'B' Game 1
Model 52.0% vs Kalshi 41.5% (de-vigged): +10.5 pts. Starters: Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
41.5¢52¢+10.5¢
3:00 PM
Atlanta Braves ML · Moneyline
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers · NLDS 'B' Game 1
Model 38.9% vs Kalshi 32.5% (de-vigged): +6.4 pts. Starters: TBD vs Tarik Skubal.
A starting pitcher is still TBD
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: removed by request (not replaced with the opposite side)
32.5¢38.9¢+6.4¢
2 lean(s) below the pick threshold
Time (CT)BetKalshiModel fairEdge
5:30 PM
New York Yankees ML · Moneyline
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays · ALDS 'A' Game 1
Model 46.8% vs Kalshi 44.5% (de-vigged): +2.3 pts. Starters: Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 2.3c < 4c
44.5¢46.8¢+2.3¢
7:30 PM
San Diego Padres ML · Moneyline
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers · NLDS 'A' Game 1
Model 39.4% vs Kalshi 35.5% (de-vigged): +3.9 pts. Starters: Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 3.9c < 4c
35.5¢39.4¢+3.9¢

Full slate

Time (CT)GameModel fair vs Kalshi
12:00 PM
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
ALDS 'B' Game 1 · Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick; projected lineups
Chicago White Sox52¢ vs 41.5¢
Cleveland Guardians48¢ vs 58.5¢
3:00 PM
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
NLDS 'B' Game 1 · TBD vs Tarik Skubal; projected lineups
Atlanta Braves38.9¢ vs 32.5¢
Los Angeles Dodgers61.1¢ vs 67.5¢
5:30 PM
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
ALDS 'A' Game 1 · Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen; projected lineups
New York Yankees46.8¢ vs 44.5¢
Tampa Bay Rays53.2¢ vs 55.5¢
7:30 PM
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
NLDS 'A' Game 1 · Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski; projected lineups
San Diego Padres39.4¢ vs 35.5¢
Milwaukee Brewers60.6¢ vs 64.5¢