Tennis picks

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · data built 2:13 AM CT
How picks are chosen. Kalshi match-winner markets (ATP, WTA, Challenger, WTA 125). A pick needs the model 10+ pts above the Kalshi midpoint, both players with 20+ matches of history, and a bid/ask spread of 10c or less. The tennis project's own paper trader uses 15 pts. In 2026 tests Kalshi's prices were more accurate than the model, so treat picks as speculative.
Most confident = edge of 10c+ vs the Kalshi midpoint, then only the top 2, ranked by the market-weighted edge after Kalshi's fee.

Suggested bets

Time (CT)BetKalshiModel fairEdge
3:30 AM
Cristina Bucsa · Match winner Most confident
Cristina Bucsa vs Xinran Sun · WTA Beijing - Round Of 64
Model 79% vs Kalshi 68% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Cristina Bucsa at 83%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 72% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +1.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
68.5¢79.1¢+10.6¢
8:00 AM
Matthew William Donald · Match winner Most confident
Matthew William Donald vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano · ATP Challenger Bari - Semifinal
Model 58% vs Kalshi 44% midpoint: a 14-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Matthew William Donald at 58%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 47% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
44.5¢58.4¢+13.9¢
4:10 AM
Zongyu Li · Match winner
Zongyu Li vs Jia-Jing Lu · WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1
Model 52% vs Kalshi 36% midpoint: a 16-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Zongyu Li at 54%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 39% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.3 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#4 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.3c)
36.5¢52.3¢+15.8¢
10:00 AM
Guido Ivan Justo · Match winner
Guido Ivan Justo vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera · ATP Challenger Curitiba - Semifinal
Model 47% vs Kalshi 34% midpoint: a 13-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Guido Ivan Justo at 38%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 36% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#6 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.0c)
34.5¢47.5¢+13.0¢
11:10 AM
Andres Andrade · Match winner
Andres Andrade vs Dylan Dietrich · ATP Challenger Columbus - Semifinal
Model 45% vs Kalshi 30% midpoint: a 14-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Andres Andrade at 53%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 32% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#7 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.0c)
30.5¢44.9¢+14.4¢
10:00 PM
Hubert Hurkacz · Match winner
Hubert Hurkacz vs Karen Khachanov · ATP Beijing - Quarterfinal
Model 59% vs Kalshi 43% midpoint: a 16-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Hubert Hurkacz at 59%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 46% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.2 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#3 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.2c)
43¢58.9¢+15.9¢
10:00 PM
Sinja Kraus · Match winner
Sinja Kraus vs Dayana Yastremska · WTA Beijing - Round Of 32
Model 47% vs Kalshi 32% midpoint: a 16-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Sinja Kraus at 42%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 33% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.7 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#5 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.7c)
31.5¢47.4¢+15.9¢

Full slate

Time (CT)GameModel fair vs Kalshi
2:20 AM
Anna Kalinskaya vs Qinwen Zheng
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 47% for Anna Kalinskaya
Anna Kalinskaya37.2¢ vs 38.5¢
Qinwen Zheng62.8¢ vs 61.5¢
2:20 AM
Harriet Dart vs Iva Jovic
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 15% for Harriet Dart
Harriet Dart12.5¢ vs 8.5¢
Iva Jovic87.5¢ vs 91.5¢
2:20 AM
Belinda Bencic vs Anastasia Zakharova
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 83% for Belinda Bencic
Belinda Bencic72.5¢ vs 79.5¢
Anastasia Zakharova27.5¢ vs 20.5¢
2:20 AM
Leylah Fernandez vs Kamilla Rakhimova
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 68% for Leylah Fernandez
Leylah Fernandez69.3¢ vs 74.5¢
Kamilla Rakhimova30.7¢ vs 25.5¢
3:00 AM
Darya Astakhova vs Sijia Wei
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 61% for Darya Astakhova
Darya Astakhova57.7¢ vs 44¢
Sijia Wei42.3¢ vs 56¢
3:00 AM
Han Shi vs Chengyiyi Yuan
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 79% for Han Shi
Han Shi79¢ vs 87¢
Chengyiyi Yuan21¢ vs 13¢
3:00 AM
Rina Saigo vs Yidi Yang
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 57% for Rina Saigo
Rina Saigo53.3¢ vs 49.5¢
Yidi Yang46.7¢ vs 50.5¢
3:00 AM
Yujia Huang vs Darya Khomutsianskaya
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 51% for Yujia Huang
Yujia Huang49.5¢ vs 50.5¢
Darya Khomutsianskaya50.5¢ vs 49.5¢
3:10 AM
Ugo Humbert vs Jiri Lehecka
ATP Tokyo - Round Of 16 · Hard; Elo 37% for Ugo Humbert
Ugo Humbert31.3¢ vs 40.5¢
Jiri Lehecka68.7¢ vs 59.5¢
3:30 AM
Cristina Bucsa vs Xinran Sun
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 83% for Cristina Bucsa
Cristina Bucsa79.1¢ vs 68.5¢
Xinran Sun20.9¢ vs 31.5¢
3:30 AM
Kimberly Birrell vs Marie Bouzkova
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 36% for Kimberly Birrell
Kimberly Birrell32.5¢ vs 32.5¢
Marie Bouzkova67.5¢ vs 67.5¢
3:50 AM
Sofya Lansere vs Yihan Qu
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 89% for Sofya Lansere
Sofya Lansere85.6¢ vs 67.5¢
Yihan Qu14.4¢ vs 32.5¢
4:00 AM
Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff
ATP Beijing - Round Of 16 · Hard; Elo 82% for Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev87.3¢ vs 85.5¢
Jan-Lennard Struff12.7¢ vs 14.5¢
4:10 AM
Kristiana Sidorova vs Katarina Zavatska
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 55% for Kristiana Sidorova
Kristiana Sidorova60.2¢ vs 64.5¢
Katarina Zavatska39.8¢ vs 35.5¢
4:10 AM
Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Kyoka Okamura
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 44% for Priska Madelyn Nugroho
Priska Madelyn Nugroho43.6¢ vs 44.5¢
Kyoka Okamura56.4¢ vs 55.5¢
4:10 AM
Jia-Jing Lu vs Zongyu Li
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 46% for Jia-Jing Lu
Jia-Jing Lu47.7¢ vs 63.5¢
Zongyu Li52.3¢ vs 36.5¢
4:40 AM
Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik
ATP Beijing - Round Of 16 · Hard; Elo 46% for Francisco Cerundolo
Francisco Cerundolo36.9¢ vs 36.5¢
Jakub Mensik63.1¢ vs 63.5¢
5:00 AM
David Jorda Sanchis vs Inaki Montes-de la Torre
ATP Challenger Porto - Semifinal · Clay; Elo 38% for David Jorda Sanchis
David Jorda Sanchis36.2¢ vs 29¢
Inaki Montes-de la Torre63.8¢ vs 71¢
5:20 AM
Rinko Matsuda vs Sijia Wei
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 35% for Rinko Matsuda
Rinko Matsuda35.9¢ vs 26.5¢
Sijia Wei64.1¢ vs 73.5¢
5:20 AM
Yihan Qu vs Wushuang Zheng
WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 · Hard; Elo 16% for Yihan Qu
Yihan Qu16¢ vs 24.5¢
Wushuang Zheng84¢ vs 75.5¢
5:30 AM
Samuele Pieri vs Vitaliy Sachko
ATP Challenger Bari - Semifinal · Hard; Elo 20% for Samuele Pieri
Samuele Pieri16.8¢ vs 24.5¢
Vitaliy Sachko83.2¢ vs 75.5¢
6:00 AM
Sonay Kartal vs Xinyu Wang
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 61% for Sonay Kartal
Sonay Kartal53.6¢ vs 50.5¢
Xinyu Wang46.4¢ vs 49.5¢
6:00 AM
Juncheng Shang vs Alexander Zverev
ATP Beijing - Round Of 16 · Hard; Elo 9% for Juncheng Shang
Juncheng Shang12¢ vs 8.5¢
Alexander Zverev88¢ vs 91.5¢
6:10 AM
Jerome Kym vs Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger Porto - Semifinal · Clay; Elo 48% for Jerome Kym
Jerome Kym47.1¢ vs 42.5¢
Henrique Rocha52.9¢ vs 57.5¢
7:00 AM
Erika Andreeva vs Lois Boisson
WTA 125K Adana - Semifinal · Unknown; Elo 31% for Erika Andreeva
Erika Andreeva35.5¢ vs 29.5¢
Lois Boisson64.5¢ vs 70.5¢
7:30 AM
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg vs Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger Mouilleron-Le-Captif - Semifinal · Hard; Elo 57% for Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg54.9¢ vs 59.5¢
Joel Schwaerzler45.1¢ vs 40.5¢
7:30 AM
Alina Charaeva vs Elena Rybakina
WTA Beijing - Round Of 64 · Hard; Elo 5% for Alina Charaeva
Alina Charaeva10¢ vs 6.5¢
Elena Rybakina90¢ vs 93.5¢
8:00 AM
Matthew William Donald vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
ATP Challenger Bari - Semifinal · Hard; Elo 58% for Matthew William Donald
Matthew William Donald58.4¢ vs 44.5¢
Juan Cruz Martin Manzano41.6¢ vs 55.5¢
8:10 AM
Leolia Jeanjean vs Antonia Ruzic
WTA 125K Adana - Semifinal · Unknown; Elo 47% for Leolia Jeanjean
Leolia Jeanjean52.3¢ vs 42.5¢
Antonia Ruzic47.7¢ vs 57.5¢
8:40 AM
Henry Bernet vs Clement Chidekh
ATP Challenger Mouilleron-Le-Captif - Semifinal · Hard; Elo 37% for Henry Bernet
Henry Bernet39.5¢ vs 37.5¢
Clement Chidekh60.5¢ vs 62.5¢
10:00 AM
Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera vs Guido Ivan Justo
ATP Challenger Curitiba - Semifinal · Clay; Elo 62% for Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera52.5¢ vs 65.5¢
Guido Ivan Justo47.5¢ vs 34.5¢
11:10 AM
Andres Andrade vs Dylan Dietrich
ATP Challenger Columbus - Semifinal · Hard; Elo 53% for Andres Andrade
Andres Andrade44.9¢ vs 30.5¢
Dylan Dietrich55.1¢ vs 69.5¢
11:10 AM
Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Gustavo Heide
ATP Challenger Curitiba - Semifinal · Clay; Elo 24% for Pedro Boscardin Dias
Pedro Boscardin Dias21.8¢ vs 18.5¢
Gustavo Heide78.2¢ vs 81.5¢
12:20 PM
Mitchell Krueger vs Abdullah Shelbayh
ATP Challenger Columbus - Semifinal · Hard; Elo 43% for Mitchell Krueger
Mitchell Krueger38.2¢ vs 43.5¢
Abdullah Shelbayh61.8¢ vs 56.5¢
9:00 PM
Kyrian Jacquet vs Jaume Munar
ATP Tokyo - Quarterfinal · Hard; Elo 38% for Kyrian Jacquet
Kyrian Jacquet43.4¢ vs 40.5¢
Jaume Munar56.6¢ vs 59.5¢
10:00 PM
Hubert Hurkacz vs Karen Khachanov
ATP Beijing - Quarterfinal · Hard; Elo 59% for Hubert Hurkacz
Hubert Hurkacz58.9¢ vs 43¢
Karen Khachanov41.1¢ vs 57¢
10:00 PM
Karolina Muchova vs Liudmila Samsonova
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 80% for Karolina Muchova
Karolina Muchova83.9¢ vs 77.5¢
Liudmila Samsonova16.1¢ vs 22.5¢
10:00 PM
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Diana Shnaider
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 38% for Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ekaterina Alexandrova33.6¢ vs 30.5¢
Diana Shnaider66.4¢ vs 69.5¢
10:00 PM
Nikola Bartunkova vs Aryna Sabalenka
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 10% for Nikola Bartunkova
Nikola Bartunkova13.2¢ vs 14.5¢
Aryna Sabalenka86.8¢ vs 85.5¢
10:00 PM
Sara Bejlek vs Naomi Osaka
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 28% for Sara Bejlek
Sara Bejlek30.6¢ vs 26¢
Naomi Osaka69.4¢ vs 74¢
10:00 PM
Sinja Kraus vs Dayana Yastremska
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 42% for Sinja Kraus
Sinja Kraus47.4¢ vs 31.5¢
Dayana Yastremska52.6¢ vs 68.5¢
10:00 PM
Mirra Andreeva vs Polina Kudermetova
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 86% for Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva87.5¢ vs 90¢
Polina Kudermetova12.5¢ vs 10¢
10:00 PM
Taylah Preston vs Daria Snigur
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 37% for Taylah Preston
Taylah Preston42.9¢ vs 38¢
Daria Snigur57.1¢ vs 62¢
10:00 PM
Viktorija Golubic vs Linda Noskova
WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 · Hard; Elo 17% for Viktorija Golubic
Viktorija Golubic11.2¢ vs 15.5¢
Linda Noskova88.8¢ vs 84.5¢