NHL picks

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · data built 2:08 AM CT

How picks are chosen. Moneylines only, from the NHL project's own rules. Underdogs need a 4+ pt edge vs the opening line with the model at 45%+; favorites have a separate, stricter rule. Picks are flagged when the team has more recent injury news than its opponent. Puck lines are never suggested: no consistent edge in backtests. Totals are only Unders when a team is on a back-to-back. Prices shown are Kalshi (midpoint, cents); the qualifying edge is measured at the opening book line.
Most confident = the NHL project's own rule (underdog the market prices under 50%, model 45%+, edge 4+ pts vs the opening line; separate favorite rule), plus the edge must still be 4c+ at the current Kalshi price; injury and goalie notes are shown as cautions, not filters.

Suggested bets

Time (CT)	Bet	Kalshi	Model fair	Edge
6:00 PM	OTT ML · Moneyline Most confident OTT @ TOR · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 57.1% vs 46.8% at the opening book line, +10.3 pts.	47.5¢	57.1¢	+9.6¢
9:00 PM	LAK ML · Moneyline Most confident LAK @ SJS · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 56.7% vs 47.8% at the opening book line, +8.9 pts. More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests	46.5¢	56.7¢	+10.2¢
6:30 PM	NJD ML · Moneyline NJD @ NYI · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 57.1% vs 48.9% at the opening book line, +8.1 pts. More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only 2.6c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick	54.5¢	57.1¢	+2.6¢

Full slate

Time (CT)	Game	Model fair vs Kalshi
6:00 PM	CHI @ BUF NHL · Projected total 6.5 vs line 6.5	CHI31¢ vs 32.5¢ BUF69¢ vs 67.5¢
6:00 PM	OTT @ TOR NHL · Projected total 6.2 vs line 6.5	OTT57.1¢ vs 47.5¢ TOR42.9¢ vs 52.5¢
6:00 PM	WSH @ TBL NHL · Projected total 6.9 vs line 6.5	WSH40.6¢ vs 40.5¢ TBL59.4¢ vs 59.5¢
6:00 PM	CAR @ PHI NHL · Projected total 6.2 vs line 5.5	CAR62¢ vs 55.5¢ PHI38¢ vs 44.5¢
6:00 PM	MTL @ PIT NHL · Projected total 6.8 vs line 6.5	MTL48.8¢ vs 53.5¢ PIT51.2¢ vs 46.5¢
6:00 PM	UTA @ CBJ NHL · Projected total 6.4 vs line 6.5	UTA53¢ vs 50.5¢ CBJ47¢ vs 49.5¢
6:00 PM	SEA @ EDM NHL · Projected total 6.3 vs line 6.5	SEA39.8¢ vs 34.5¢ EDM60.2¢ vs 65.5¢
6:30 PM	NJD @ NYI NHL · Projected total 6.6 vs line 5.5	NJD57.1¢ vs 54.5¢ NYI42.9¢ vs 45.5¢
7:00 PM	DAL @ NSH NHL · Projected total 6.2 vs line 6.5	DAL64.4¢ vs 55.5¢ NSH35.6¢ vs 44.5¢
7:00 PM	BOS @ MIN NHL · Projected total 6.2 vs line 6.5	BOS44.5¢ vs 35.5¢ MIN55.5¢ vs 64.5¢
8:00 PM	STL @ COL NHL · Projected total 6.7 vs line 6.5	STL38.2¢ vs 28¢ COL61.8¢ vs 72¢
9:00 PM	CGY @ VAN NHL · Projected total 6.4 vs line 6.5	CGY54.2¢ vs 47.5¢ VAN45.8¢ vs 52.5¢
9:00 PM	LAK @ SJS NHL · Projected total 6.5 vs line 6.5	LAK56.7¢ vs 46.5¢ SJS43.3¢ vs 53.5¢