NFL picks

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · data built 2:43 AM CT
How picks are chosen. Kalshi moneylines, as on the NFL page's "Model Suggests": the edge is the model's win probability minus the cheapest Kalshi way to back the team (YES on it, or NO on the opponent). Favorites need 4.5c+, underdogs 5c+ and only when Kalshi has them above 30%. One bet per game; manual no-bet teams are skipped. Covers this week's games that haven't kicked off. Full NFL page: nfl-slate.pages.dev.
Most confident = the NFL page's own rule (favorites 4.5c+, underdogs 5c+ above 30%).

Suggested bets

Time (CT)BetKalshiModel fairEdge
12:00 PM
DAL ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DAL) Most confident
DAL @ HOU · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 64.2% vs the best Kalshi buy price 42c (YES on DAL): +22.2c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
42¢64.2¢+22.2¢
12:00 PM
JAX ML · Moneyline (buy YES on JAX) Most confident
JAX @ CIN · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 62.4% vs the best Kalshi buy price 43c (YES on JAX): +19.4c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
43¢62.4¢+19.4¢
3:25 PM
SEA ML · Moneyline (buy YES on SEA) Most confident
LAC @ SEA · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 88.6% vs the best Kalshi buy price 76c (YES on SEA): +12.6c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
76¢88.6¢+12.6¢
3:25 PM
SF ML · Moneyline (buy YES on SF) Most confident
DEN @ SF · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 70.3% vs the best Kalshi buy price 58c (YES on SF): +12.3c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
58¢70.3¢+12.3¢
7:20 PM
DET ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DET) Most confident
DET @ CAR · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 74.9% vs the best Kalshi buy price 65c (YES on DET): +9.9c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
65¢74.9¢+9.9¢

Full slate

Time (CT)GameModel fair vs Kalshi
8:30 AM
IND @ WAS
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: IND +0.7
IND53.6¢ vs 65.5¢
WAS46.4¢ vs 34.5¢
12:00 PM
ARI @ NYG
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: ARI +0.9
ARI52.4¢ vs 56.5¢
NYG47.6¢ vs 43.5¢
12:00 PM
DAL @ HOU
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: DAL +1.5
DAL64.2¢ vs 41.5¢
HOU35.8¢ vs 58.5¢
12:00 PM
GB @ TB
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: GB +0.2
GB57.5¢ vs 61.1¢
TB42.5¢ vs 38.9¢
12:00 PM
JAX @ CIN
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: JAX +3.5
JAX62.4¢ vs 42.9¢
CIN37.6¢ vs 57.1¢
12:00 PM
LA @ PHI
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: LA +0.3
LA60¢ vs 63.5¢
PHI40¢ vs 36.5¢
12:00 PM
NE @ BUF
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: NE -7.2
NE27.2¢ vs 25.8¢
BUF72.8¢ vs 74.2¢
12:00 PM
NYJ @ CHI
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: NYJ -3.1
NYJ37.1¢ vs 36.5¢
CHI62.9¢ vs 63.5¢
12:00 PM
TEN @ BAL
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: TEN -11.7
TEN17.3¢ vs 14.5¢
BAL82.7¢ vs 85.5¢
3:05 PM
MIA @ MIN
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: MIA -10.4
MIA21.4¢ vs 16.5¢
MIN78.6¢ vs 83.5¢
3:25 PM
DEN @ SF
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: DEN -6.9
DEN29.7¢ vs 42.5¢
SF70.3¢ vs 57.5¢
3:25 PM
KC @ LV
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: KC +3.9
KC71.3¢ vs 66.5¢
LV28.7¢ vs 33.5¢
3:25 PM
LAC @ SEA
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: LAC -15.0
LAC11.4¢ vs 24.5¢
SEA88.6¢ vs 75.5¢
7:20 PM
DET @ CAR
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: DET +3.6
DET74.9¢ vs 64.5¢
CAR25.1¢ vs 35.5¢
Mon 7:15 PM
ATL @ NO
NFL 2026 Week 4 · Model spread: ATL -1.9
ATL43.3¢ vs 46¢
NO56.7¢ vs 54¢