Daily Picks

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · updated Oct 3, 2:13 AM CT
12
Suggested bets
2
MLB · 4 on slate
3
NHL · 13 on slate
7
Tennis · 44 on slate

Suggested bets

What "most confident" means
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
3:30 AMTennis
Cristina Bucsa · Match winner Most confident
Cristina Bucsa vs Xinran Sun · WTA Beijing - Round Of 64
Model 79% vs Kalshi 68% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Cristina Bucsa at 83%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 72% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +1.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
68.5¢79.1¢+10.6¢
8:00 AMTennis
Matthew William Donald · Match winner Most confident
Matthew William Donald vs Juan Cruz Martin Manzano · ATP Challenger Bari - Semifinal
Model 58% vs Kalshi 44% midpoint: a 14-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Matthew William Donald at 58%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 47% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
44.5¢58.4¢+13.9¢
12:00 PMMLB
Chicago White Sox ML · Moneyline Most confident
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians · ALDS 'B' Game 1
Model 52.0% vs Kalshi 41.5% (de-vigged): +10.5 pts. Starters: Hagen Smith vs Parker Messick.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
41.5¢52¢+10.5¢
6:00 PMNHL
OTT ML · Moneyline Most confident
OTT @ TOR · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 57.1% vs 46.8% at the opening book line, +10.3 pts.
47.5¢57.1¢+9.6¢
9:00 PMNHL
LAK ML · Moneyline Most confident
LAK @ SJS · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 56.7% vs 47.8% at the opening book line, +8.9 pts.
More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests
46.5¢56.7¢+10.2¢
4:10 AMTennis
Zongyu Li · Match winner
Zongyu Li vs Jia-Jing Lu · WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1
Model 52% vs Kalshi 36% midpoint: a 16-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Zongyu Li at 54%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 39% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.3 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#4 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.3c)
36.5¢52.3¢+15.8¢
10:00 AMTennis
Guido Ivan Justo · Match winner
Guido Ivan Justo vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera · ATP Challenger Curitiba - Semifinal
Model 47% vs Kalshi 34% midpoint: a 13-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Guido Ivan Justo at 38%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 36% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#6 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.0c)
34.5¢47.5¢+13.0¢
11:10 AMTennis
Andres Andrade · Match winner
Andres Andrade vs Dylan Dietrich · ATP Challenger Columbus - Semifinal
Model 45% vs Kalshi 30% midpoint: a 14-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Andres Andrade at 53%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 32% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#7 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.0c)
30.5¢44.9¢+14.4¢
3:00 PMMLB
Atlanta Braves ML · Moneyline
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers · NLDS 'B' Game 1
Model 38.9% vs Kalshi 32.5% (de-vigged): +6.4 pts. Starters: TBD vs Tarik Skubal.
A starting pitcher is still TBD
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: removed by request (not replaced with the opposite side)
32.5¢38.9¢+6.4¢
6:30 PMNHL
NJD ML · Moneyline
NJD @ NYI · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 57.1% vs 48.9% at the opening book line, +8.1 pts.
More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests
Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only 2.6c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick
54.5¢57.1¢+2.6¢
10:00 PMTennis
Hubert Hurkacz · Match winner
Hubert Hurkacz vs Karen Khachanov · ATP Beijing - Quarterfinal
Model 59% vs Kalshi 43% midpoint: a 16-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Hubert Hurkacz at 59%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 46% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.2 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#3 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.2c)
43¢58.9¢+15.9¢
10:00 PMTennis
Sinja Kraus · Match winner
Sinja Kraus vs Dayana Yastremska · WTA Beijing - Round Of 32
Model 47% vs Kalshi 32% midpoint: a 16-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Sinja Kraus at 42%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 33% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.7 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#5 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.7c)
31.5¢47.4¢+15.9¢
2 lean(s) below the pick threshold
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
5:30 PMMLB
New York Yankees ML · Moneyline
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays · ALDS 'A' Game 1
Model 46.8% vs Kalshi 44.5% (de-vigged): +2.3 pts. Starters: Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 2.3c < 4c
44.5¢46.8¢+2.3¢
7:30 PMMLB
San Diego Padres ML · Moneyline
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers · NLDS 'A' Game 1
Model 39.4% vs Kalshi 35.5% (de-vigged): +3.9 pts. Starters: Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 3.9c < 4c
35.5¢39.4¢+3.9¢