Daily Picks

Monday, October 5, 2026 · updated Oct 5, 12:21 AM CT
10
Suggested bets
0
MLB · 2 on slate
0
NFL · 1 on slate
0
NHL · 4 on slate
10
Tennis · 88 on slate

Suggested bets

What "most confident" means
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
12:30 AMTennis
Ilia Simakin · Match winner Most confident
Ilia Simakin vs Luka Pavlovic · ATP Shanghai - Qualification Round 1
Model 81% vs Kalshi 68% midpoint: a 13-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Ilia Simakin at 78%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 72% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +1.7 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
67.5¢81¢+13.5¢
3:00 AMTennis
Noma Noha Akugue · Match winner Most confident
Noma Noha Akugue vs Elena Micic · WTA 125K Samsun - Qualification Final
Model 86% vs Kalshi 68% midpoint: a 18-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Noma Noha Akugue at 89%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 74% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +3.1 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
68.5¢86.3¢+17.8¢
4:00 AMTennis
Kalin Ivanovski · Match winner
Kalin Ivanovski vs Federico Arnaboldi · ATP Challenger Palermo - Qualification Final
Model 57% vs Kalshi 44% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Kalin Ivanovski at 57%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 47% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.3 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#10 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.3c)
44.5¢56.9¢+12.4¢
4:10 AMTennis
Julia Grabher · Match winner
Julia Grabher vs Dalma Galfi · WTA 125K Samsun - Round Of 32
Model 54% vs Kalshi 34% midpoint: a 19-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Julia Grabher at 55%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 37% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +1.2 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#4 by market-weighted edge after fee, +1.2c)
34.5¢54¢+19.5¢
4:10 AMTennis
Lucia Bronzetti · Match winner
Lucia Bronzetti vs Fiona Crawley · WTA 125K Samsun - Round Of 32
Model 58% vs Kalshi 46% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Lucia Bronzetti at 68%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 48% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.9 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#8 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.9c)
46¢57.8¢+11.8¢
5:20 AMTennis
Suzan Lamens · Match winner
Suzan Lamens vs Polina Iatcenko · WTA 125K Samsun - Round Of 32
Model 61% vs Kalshi 46% midpoint: a 15-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Suzan Lamens at 64%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 49% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.7 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#7 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.7c)
46.5¢61.3¢+14.8¢
5:20 AMTennis
Dominika Salkova · Match winner
Dominika Salkova vs Himeno Sakatsume · WTA 125K Samsun - Round Of 32
Model 63% vs Kalshi 50% midpoint: a 14-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Dominika Salkova at 59%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 52% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +1.3 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#3 by market-weighted edge after fee, +1.3c)
49.5¢63.2¢+13.7¢
8:00 AMTennis
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez · Match winner
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo · ATP Challenger Antofagasta - Qualification Final
Model 28% vs Kalshi 16% midpoint: a 13-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez at 22%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 16% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +0.0 pts after the 1c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#6 by market-weighted edge after fee, +0.0c)
15.5¢28.5¢+13.0¢
9:00 PMTennis
Mananchaya Sawangkaew · Match winner
Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Fruhvirtova · WTA 125K Suzhou - Round Of 32
Model 72% vs Kalshi 62% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Mananchaya Sawangkaew at 70%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 65% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +0.5 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#5 by market-weighted edge after fee, +0.5c)
61.5¢72¢+10.5¢
10:00 PMTennis
Karolina Muchova · Match winner
Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka · WTA Beijing - Round Of 16
Model 69% vs Kalshi 57% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Karolina Muchova at 58%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 60% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#9 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.0c)
57¢68.9¢+11.9¢
2 lean(s) below the pick threshold
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
4:00 PMMLB
Cleveland Guardians ML · Moneyline
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians · ALDS 'B' Game 2
Model 63.1% vs Kalshi 59.5% (de-vigged): +3.6 pts. Starters: Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 3.6c < 4c
59.5¢63.1¢+3.6¢
7:00 PMMLB
Tampa Bay Rays ML · Moneyline
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays · ALDS 'A' Game 2
Model 49.4% vs Kalshi 47.5% (de-vigged): +1.9 pts. Starters: Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 1.9c < 4c
47.5¢49.4¢+1.9¢