Daily Picks

Tuesday, October 6, 2026 · updated Oct 6, 2:21 PM CT

Suggested bets

MLB · 2 on slate

NFL · 15 on slate

NHL · 9 on slate

Tennis · 9 on slate

Suggested bets

Most confident only (9)

What "most confident" means

MLB: edge of 4c+ vs Kalshi
NFL: the NFL page's own rule (favorites 4.5c+, underdogs 5c+ above 30%)
NHL: the NHL project's own rule (underdog the market prices under 50%, model 45%+, edge 4+ pts vs the opening line; separate favorite rule), plus the edge must still be 4c+ at the current Kalshi price; injury and goalie notes are shown as cautions, not filters
Tennis: edge of 10c+ vs the Kalshi midpoint, then only the top 2, ranked by the market-weighted edge after Kalshi's fee

Time (CT)	Sport	Bet	Kalshi	Model fair	Edge
5:00 PM	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers ML · Moneyline Most confident Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · NLDS 'B' Game 3 Model 55.5% vs Kalshi 50.5% (de-vigged): +5.0 pts. Starters: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Chris Sale.	50.5¢	55.5¢	+5.0¢
6:00 PM	NHL	NSH ML · Moneyline Most confident NSH @ TOR · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 48.7% vs 42.1% at the opening book line, +6.6 pts.	41.5¢	48.7¢	+7.2¢
Sun 12:00 PM	NFL	NYG ML · Moneyline (buy YES on NYG) Most confident NYG @ WAS · NFL 2026 Week 5 Model 52.9% vs the best Kalshi buy price 38c (YES on NYG): +14.9c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).	38¢	52.9¢	+14.9¢
Sun 12:00 PM	NFL	CLE ML · Moneyline (buy YES on CLE) Most confident CLE @ NYJ · NFL 2026 Week 5 Model 59.3% vs the best Kalshi buy price 46c (YES on CLE): +13.3c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).	46¢	59.3¢	+13.3¢
Sun 12:00 PM	NFL	CHI ML · Moneyline (buy NO on GB) Most confident CHI @ GB · NFL 2026 Week 5 Model 66.2% vs the best Kalshi buy price 58c (NO on GB): +8.2c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).	58¢	66.2¢	+8.2¢
Sun 3:05 PM	NFL	DEN ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DEN) Most confident DEN @ LAC · NFL 2026 Week 5 Model 68.6% vs the best Kalshi buy price 63c (YES on DEN): +5.6c, Moderate on the NFL page (favorite rule).	63¢	68.6¢	+5.6¢
Sun 3:25 PM	NFL	DET ML · Moneyline (buy NO on ARI) Most confident DET @ ARI · NFL 2026 Week 5 Model 74.8% vs the best Kalshi buy price 69c (NO on ARI): +5.8c, Moderate on the NFL page (favorite rule).	69¢	74.8¢	+5.8¢
Sun 7:20 PM	NFL	BAL ML · Moneyline (buy YES on BAL) Most confident BAL @ ATL · NFL 2026 Week 5 Model 62.5% vs the best Kalshi buy price 39c (YES on BAL): +23.5c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).	39¢	62.5¢	+23.5¢
Mon 7:15 PM	NFL	BUF ML · Moneyline (buy YES on BUF) Most confident BUF @ LA · NFL 2026 Week 5 Model 56.6% vs the best Kalshi buy price 41c (YES on BUF): +15.6c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).	41¢	56.6¢	+15.6¢

1 lean(s) below the pick threshold

Time (CT)	Sport	Bet	Kalshi	Model fair	Edge
8:30 PM	MLB	San Diego Padres ML · Moneyline Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · NLDS 'A' Game 3 Model 55.9% vs Kalshi 55.5% (de-vigged): +0.4 pts. Starters: Dustin May vs Nick Pivetta. Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games Not top-confidence: edge 0.4c < 4c	55.5¢	55.9¢	+0.4¢