| Time (CT) | Sport | Bet | Kalshi | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:30 PM | NHL | WPG ML · Moneyline Most confident WPG @ PIT · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 45.3% vs 39.5% at the opening book line, +5.8 pts. | 37.5¢ | 45.3¢ | +7.8¢ |
| 9:00 PM | Tennis | Mananchaya Sawangkaew · Match winner Most confident Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Fruhvirtova · WTA 125K Suzhou - Round Of 32 Model 72% vs Kalshi 60% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Mananchaya Sawangkaew at 70%. Market-weighted estimate is only 64% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.3 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) | 60.5¢ | 72¢ | +11.5¢ |
| 6:00 PM | NHL | TBL ML · Moneyline PHI @ TBL · NHL Qualifies under the NHL favorite rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 66.1% vs 61.2% at the opening book line, +4.8 pts. Edge drops to +2.6 pts with a different starting goalie Goalie scenario: Dennis Hildeby starts for TBL (4% chance): +2.6 Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only -0.4c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick | 66.5¢ | 66.1¢ | -0.4¢ |
| 7:00 PM | NHL | DAL ML · Moneyline SJS @ DAL · NHL Qualifies under the NHL favorite rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 64.2% vs 59.9% at the opening book line, +4.3 pts. Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only -0.3c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick | 64.5¢ | 64.2¢ | -0.3¢ |
| Time (CT) | Sport | Bet | Kalshi | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 PM | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays ML · Moneyline New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays · ALDS 'A' Game 2 Model 49.4% vs Kalshi 47.5% (de-vigged): +1.9 pts. Starters: Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta. Not top-confidence: edge 1.9c < 4c | 47.5¢ | 49.4¢ | +1.9¢ |