Daily Picks

Tuesday, October 6, 2026 · updated Oct 6, 12:23 PM CT
12
Suggested bets
1
MLB · 2 on slate
7
NFL · 15 on slate
2
NHL · 9 on slate
2
Tennis · 16 on slate

Suggested bets

What "most confident" means
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
12:35 PMTennis
Laslo Djere · Match winner Most confident
Laslo Djere vs Dominic Stricker · ATP Challenger Villena - Round Of 32
Model 52% vs Kalshi 40% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Laslo Djere at 58%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 42% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.8 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
40.5¢52¢+11.5¢
5:00 PMMLB
Los Angeles Dodgers ML · Moneyline Most confident
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · NLDS 'B' Game 3
Model 55.1% vs Kalshi 50.5% (de-vigged): +4.6 pts. Starters: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Chris Sale.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
50.5¢55.1¢+4.6¢
6:00 PMNHL
NSH ML · Moneyline Most confident
NSH @ TOR · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 48.7% vs 42.1% at the opening book line, +6.6 pts.
41.5¢48.7¢+7.2¢
6:30 PMNHL
NYI ML · Moneyline Most confident
NYI @ NYR · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 47.3% vs 43.1% at the opening book line, +4.2 pts.
41.5¢47.3¢+5.8¢
10:00 PMTennis
Keisuke Saitoh · Match winner Most confident
Keisuke Saitoh vs Hiroki Moriya · ATP Challenger Wuning - Round Of 16
Model 60% vs Kalshi 48% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Keisuke Saitoh at 54%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 51% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.3 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
48.5¢59.7¢+11.2¢
Sun 12:00 PMNFL
NYG ML · Moneyline (buy YES on NYG) Most confident
NYG @ WAS · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 52.9% vs the best Kalshi buy price 38c (YES on NYG): +14.9c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
38¢52.9¢+14.9¢
Sun 12:00 PMNFL
CLE ML · Moneyline (buy NO on NYJ) Most confident
CLE @ NYJ · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 59.3% vs the best Kalshi buy price 45c (NO on NYJ): +14.3c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
45¢59.3¢+14.3¢
Sun 12:00 PMNFL
CHI ML · Moneyline (buy NO on GB) Most confident
CHI @ GB · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 66.2% vs the best Kalshi buy price 58c (NO on GB): +8.2c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
58¢66.2¢+8.2¢
Sun 3:05 PMNFL
DEN ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DEN) Most confident
DEN @ LAC · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 68.6% vs the best Kalshi buy price 64c (YES on DEN): +4.6c, Moderate on the NFL page (favorite rule).
64¢68.6¢+4.6¢
Sun 3:25 PMNFL
DET ML · Moneyline (buy NO on ARI) Most confident
DET @ ARI · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 74.8% vs the best Kalshi buy price 69c (NO on ARI): +5.8c, Moderate on the NFL page (favorite rule).
69¢74.8¢+5.8¢
Sun 7:20 PMNFL
BAL ML · Moneyline (buy YES on BAL) Most confident
BAL @ ATL · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 62.5% vs the best Kalshi buy price 40c (YES on BAL): +22.5c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
40¢62.5¢+22.5¢
Mon 7:15 PMNFL
BUF ML · Moneyline (buy YES on BUF) Most confident
BUF @ LA · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 56.6% vs the best Kalshi buy price 41c (YES on BUF): +15.6c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
41¢56.6¢+15.6¢
1 lean(s) below the pick threshold
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
8:30 PMMLB
San Diego Padres ML · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · NLDS 'A' Game 3
Model 55.9% vs Kalshi 55.5% (de-vigged): +0.4 pts. Starters: Dustin May vs Nick Pivetta.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 0.4c < 4c
55.5¢55.9¢+0.4¢