| Time (CT) | Sport | Bet | Kalshi | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30 PM | MLB | San Diego Padres ML · Moneyline Most confident San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers · NLDS 'A' Game 1 Model 39.6% vs Kalshi 35.5% (de-vigged): +4.1 pts. Starters: Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski. | 35.5¢ | 39.6¢ | +4.1¢ |
| 9:00 PM | Tennis | Grigoriy Lomakin · Match winner Most confident Grigoriy Lomakin vs Ajeet Rai · ATP Challenger Wuning - Qualification Round 1 Model 46% vs Kalshi 24% midpoint: a 22-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Grigoriy Lomakin at 39%. Market-weighted estimate is only 26% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.2 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) | 23.5¢ | 45.6¢ | +22.1¢ |
| 9:00 PM | NHL | LAK ML · Moneyline Most confident LAK @ SJS · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 55.4% vs 47.8% at the opening book line, +7.6 pts. More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests | 49.5¢ | 55.4¢ | +5.9¢ |
| 10:00 PM | Tennis | Sinja Kraus · Match winner Most confident Sinja Kraus vs Dayana Yastremska · WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 Model 50% vs Kalshi 29% midpoint: a 21-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Sinja Kraus at 42%. Market-weighted estimate is only 32% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.5 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) | 29¢ | 49.9¢ | +20.9¢ |
| 6:30 PM | NHL | NJD ML · Moneyline NJD @ NYI · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 54.9% vs 48.9% at the opening book line, +6.0 pts. More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only -1.6c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick | 56.5¢ | 54.9¢ | -1.6¢ |
| 9:00 PM | Tennis | Zongyu Li · Match winner Zongyu Li vs Jia-Jing Lu · WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 Model 49% vs Kalshi 36% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Zongyu Li at 54%. Market-weighted estimate is only 38% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.0 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#3 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.0c) | 36.5¢ | 48.8¢ | +12.3¢ |
| 10:10 PM | Tennis | Chengyiyi Yuan · Match winner Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi · WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 Model 24% vs Kalshi 12% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Chengyiyi Yuan at 21%. Market-weighted estimate is only 13% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.2 pts after the 1c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#4 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.2c) | 12.5¢ | 23.7¢ | +11.2¢ |