Daily Picks

Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · updated Oct 7, 10:52 AM CT
10
Suggested bets
0
MLB · 4 on slate
7
NFL · 15 on slate
2
NHL · 3 on slate
1
Tennis · 11 on slate

Suggested bets

What "most confident" means
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
2:10 PMTennis
Nick Hardt · Match winner Most confident
Nick Hardt vs Felipe Meligeni Alves · ATP Challenger Antofagasta - Round Of 16
Model 42% vs Kalshi 32% midpoint: a 10-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Nick Hardt at 41%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 33% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -2.2 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
32¢42.4¢+10.4¢
6:30 PMNHL
PIT ML · Moneyline Most confident
PIT @ WSH · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 52.1% vs 39.8% at the opening book line, +12.2 pts.
41.5¢52.1¢+10.6¢
Sun 12:00 PMNFL
CLE ML · Moneyline (buy NO on NYJ) Most confident
CLE @ NYJ · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 62.0% vs the best Kalshi buy price 45c (NO on NYJ): +17.0c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
45¢62¢+17.0¢
Sun 12:00 PMNFL
NYG ML · Moneyline (buy YES on NYG) Most confident
NYG @ WAS · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 53.0% vs the best Kalshi buy price 38c (YES on NYG): +15.0c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
38¢53¢+15.0¢
Sun 12:00 PMNFL
CHI ML · Moneyline (buy YES on CHI) Most confident
CHI @ GB · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 67.2% vs the best Kalshi buy price 59c (YES on CHI): +8.2c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
59¢67.2¢+8.2¢
Sun 12:00 PMNFL
IND ML · Moneyline (buy YES on IND) Most confident
IND @ PIT · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 48.2% vs the best Kalshi buy price 43c (YES on IND): +5.2c, Moderate on the NFL page (underdog rule).
43¢48.2¢+5.2¢
Sun 3:05 PMNFL
DEN ML · Moneyline (buy NO on LAC) Most confident
DEN @ LAC · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 69.9% vs the best Kalshi buy price 63c (NO on LAC): +6.9c, Moderate on the NFL page (favorite rule).
63¢69.9¢+6.9¢
Sun 7:20 PMNFL
BAL ML · Moneyline (buy YES on BAL) Most confident
BAL @ ATL · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 62.1% vs the best Kalshi buy price 39c (YES on BAL): +23.1c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
39¢62.1¢+23.1¢
Mon 7:15 PMNFL
BUF ML · Moneyline (buy NO on LA) Most confident
BUF @ LA · NFL 2026 Week 5
Model 58.3% vs the best Kalshi buy price 40c (NO on LA): +18.3c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
40¢58.3¢+18.3¢
9:00 PMNHL
EDM ML · Moneyline
EDM @ ANA · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL favorite rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 58.2% vs 53.6% at the opening book line, +4.6 pts.
Edge drops to +1.5 pts with a different starting goalie
Goalie scenario: Ville Husso starts for ANA (4% chance): +1.5
Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only 1.7c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick
56.5¢58.2¢+1.7¢
4 lean(s) below the pick threshold
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
3:00 PMMLB
Cleveland Guardians ML · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox · ALDS 'B' Game 3
Model 49.4% vs Kalshi 48.5% (de-vigged): +0.9 pts. Starters: Daniel Espino vs Sean Newcomb.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 0.9c < 4c
48.5¢49.4¢+0.9¢
5:00 PMMLB
Los Angeles Dodgers ML · Moneyline
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · NLDS 'B' Game 4
Model 59.2% vs Kalshi 57.5% (de-vigged): +1.7 pts. Starters: Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Mahle.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 1.7c < 4c
57.5¢59.2¢+1.7¢
7:00 PMMLB
Tampa Bay Rays ML · Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees · ALDS 'A' Game 3
Model 43.2% vs Kalshi 39.5% (de-vigged): +3.7 pts. Starters: Nick Martinez vs Max Fried.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 3.7c < 4c
39.5¢43.2¢+3.7¢
9:00 PMMLB
Milwaukee Brewers ML · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · NLDS 'A' Game 4
Model 50.7% vs Kalshi 48.5% (de-vigged): +2.2 pts. Starters: Robert Gasser vs Walker Buehler.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 2.2c < 4c
48.5¢50.7¢+2.2¢