| Time (CT) | Sport | Bet | Kalshi | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | NHL | OTT ML · Moneyline Most confident OTT @ TOR · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 55.8% vs 46.8% at the opening book line, +9.0 pts. | 48.5¢ | 55.8¢ | +7.3¢ |
| 7:30 PM | MLB | San Diego Padres ML · Moneyline Most confident San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers · NLDS 'A' Game 1 Model 39.6% vs Kalshi 35.5% (de-vigged): +4.1 pts. Starters: Robbie Ray vs Jacob Misiorowski. | 35.5¢ | 39.6¢ | +4.1¢ |
| 9:00 PM | Tennis | Grigoriy Lomakin · Match winner Most confident Grigoriy Lomakin vs Ajeet Rai · ATP Challenger Wuning - Qualification Round 1 Model 46% vs Kalshi 20% midpoint: a 25-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Grigoriy Lomakin at 39%. Market-weighted estimate is only 23% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.0 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) | 20.5¢ | 45.6¢ | +25.1¢ |
| 9:00 PM | Tennis | Zongyu Li · Match winner Most confident Zongyu Li vs Jia-Jing Lu · WTA 125K Suzhou - Qualification Round 1 Model 52% vs Kalshi 36% midpoint: a 16-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Zongyu Li at 54%. Market-weighted estimate is only 39% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.3 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) | 36.5¢ | 52.3¢ | +15.8¢ |
| 9:00 PM | NHL | LAK ML · Moneyline Most confident LAK @ SJS · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 55.4% vs 47.8% at the opening book line, +7.6 pts. More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests | 49.5¢ | 55.4¢ | +5.9¢ |
| 6:30 PM | NHL | NJD ML · Moneyline NJD @ NYI · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 54.9% vs 48.9% at the opening book line, +6.0 pts. More players ruled out recently than the opponent; this group did much worse in backtests Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only -1.6c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick | 56.5¢ | 54.9¢ | -1.6¢ |
| 10:00 PM | Tennis | Sinja Kraus · Match winner Sinja Kraus vs Dayana Yastremska · WTA Beijing - Round Of 32 Model 47% vs Kalshi 29% midpoint: a 19-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Sinja Kraus at 42%. Market-weighted estimate is only 31% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.4 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#3 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.4c) | 28.5¢ | 47.4¢ | +18.9¢ |
| Time (CT) | Sport | Bet | Kalshi | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:30 PM | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays ML · Moneyline New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays · ALDS 'A' Game 1 Model 58.2% vs Kalshi 55.5% (de-vigged): +2.7 pts. Starters: Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen. Not top-confidence: edge 2.7c < 4c | 55.5¢ | 58.2¢ | +2.7¢ |