| Time (CT) | Sport | Bet | Kalshi | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 PM | NFL | DAL ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DAL) Most confident DAL @ HOU · NFL 2026 Week 4 Model 64.2% vs the best Kalshi buy price 43c (YES on DAL): +21.2c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule). | 43¢ | 64.2¢ | +21.2¢ |
| 12:00 PM | NFL | JAX ML · Moneyline (buy YES on JAX) Most confident JAX @ CIN · NFL 2026 Week 4 Model 62.4% vs the best Kalshi buy price 43c (YES on JAX): +19.4c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule). | 43¢ | 62.4¢ | +19.4¢ |
| 3:25 PM | NFL | SEA ML · Moneyline (buy YES on SEA) Most confident LAC @ SEA · NFL 2026 Week 4 Model 88.6% vs the best Kalshi buy price 76c (YES on SEA): +12.6c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule). | 76¢ | 88.6¢ | +12.6¢ |
| 3:25 PM | NFL | SF ML · Moneyline (buy YES on SF) Most confident DEN @ SF · NFL 2026 Week 4 Model 70.3% vs the best Kalshi buy price 59c (YES on SF): +11.3c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule). | 59¢ | 70.3¢ | +11.3¢ |
| 7:20 PM | NFL | DET ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DET) Most confident DET @ CAR · NFL 2026 Week 4 Model 74.9% vs the best Kalshi buy price 65c (YES on DET): +9.9c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule). | 65¢ | 74.9¢ | +9.9¢ |
| 9:00 PM | Tennis | Mananchaya Sawangkaew · Match winner Most confident Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Fruhvirtova · WTA 125K Suzhou - Round Of 32 Model 72% vs Kalshi 60% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Mananchaya Sawangkaew at 70%. Market-weighted estimate is only 63% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +5.3 pts after the 2c fee Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02) | 60¢ | 72¢ | +12.0¢ |
| 7:00 PM | NHL | FLA ML · Moneyline FLA @ ANA · NHL Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 56.6% vs 45.8% at the opening book line, +10.8 pts. Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only 1.1c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick | 55.5¢ | 56.6¢ | +1.1¢ |
| Time (CT) | Sport | Bet | Kalshi | Model fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 PM | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers ML · Moneyline San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers · NLDS 'A' Game 2 Model 57.3% vs Kalshi 55.5% (de-vigged): +1.8 pts. Starters: Michael King vs Logan Henderson. Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games Not top-confidence: edge 1.8c < 4c | 55.5¢ | 57.3¢ | +1.8¢ |
| 7:00 PM | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers ML · Moneyline Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers · NLDS 'B' Game 2 Model 60.5% vs Kalshi 58.5% (de-vigged): +2.0 pts. Starters: Chris Sale vs Blake Snell. Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games Not top-confidence: edge 2.0c < 4c | 58.5¢ | 60.5¢ | +2.0¢ |