Daily Picks

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · updated Oct 4, 2:48 AM CT
14
Suggested bets
1
MLB · 2 on slate
5
NFL · 15 on slate
1
NHL · 5 on slate
7
Tennis · 78 on slate

Suggested bets

What "most confident" means
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
4:00 AMTennis
Maria Golovina · Match winner Most confident
Maria Golovina vs Elena Micic · WTA 125K Samsun - Qualification Round 1
Model 75% vs Kalshi 52% midpoint: a 22-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Maria Golovina at 74%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 58% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about +2.6 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
52.5¢74.5¢+22.0¢
8:10 AMTennis
Francisco Rocha · Match winner Most confident
Francisco Rocha vs Oleksii Krutykh · ATP Challenger Braga - Qualification Round 1
Model 28% vs Kalshi 18% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Francisco Rocha at 22%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 18% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.3 pts after the 1c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
17.5¢28.1¢+10.6¢
12:00 PMNFL
DAL ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DAL) Most confident
DAL @ HOU · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 64.2% vs the best Kalshi buy price 42c (YES on DAL): +22.2c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
42¢64.2¢+22.2¢
12:00 PMNFL
JAX ML · Moneyline (buy YES on JAX) Most confident
JAX @ CIN · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 62.4% vs the best Kalshi buy price 43c (YES on JAX): +19.4c, Strong on the NFL page (underdog rule).
43¢62.4¢+19.4¢
3:25 PMNFL
SEA ML · Moneyline (buy YES on SEA) Most confident
LAC @ SEA · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 88.6% vs the best Kalshi buy price 76c (YES on SEA): +12.6c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
76¢88.6¢+12.6¢
3:25 PMNFL
SF ML · Moneyline (buy YES on SF) Most confident
DEN @ SF · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 70.3% vs the best Kalshi buy price 58c (YES on SF): +12.3c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
58¢70.3¢+12.3¢
7:00 PMMLB
Los Angeles Dodgers ML · Moneyline Most confident
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers · NLDS 'B' Game 2
Model 64.5% vs Kalshi 58.5% (de-vigged): +6.0 pts. Starters: TBD vs Blake Snell.
A starting pitcher is still TBD
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
58.5¢64.5¢+6.0¢
7:20 PMNFL
DET ML · Moneyline (buy YES on DET) Most confident
DET @ CAR · NFL 2026 Week 4
Model 74.9% vs the best Kalshi buy price 65c (YES on DET): +9.9c, Strong on the NFL page (favorite rule).
65¢74.9¢+9.9¢
4:00 AMTennis
Vadym Ursu · Match winner
Vadym Ursu vs Diego Dedura-Palomero · ATP Challenger Villena - Qualification Round 1
Model 34% vs Kalshi 22% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Vadym Ursu at 29%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 23% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -3.0 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#7 by market-weighted edge after fee, -3.0c)
22.5¢33.7¢+11.2¢
5:20 AMTennis
Kalin Ivanovski · Match winner
Kalin Ivanovski vs Giuseppe La Vela · ATP Challenger Palermo - Qualification Round 1
Model 62% vs Kalshi 49% midpoint: a 13-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Kalin Ivanovski at 68%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 52% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -0.3 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#3 by market-weighted edge after fee, -0.3c)
49¢62.3¢+13.3¢
7:00 AMTennis
Nico Hipfl · Match winner
Nico Hipfl vs Ryan Nijboer · ATP Challenger Braga - Qualification Round 1
Model 36% vs Kalshi 24% midpoint: a 12-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Nico Hipfl at 27%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 24% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.8 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#6 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.8c)
23.5¢35.5¢+12.0¢
9:10 AMTennis
Wilson Leite · Match winner
Wilson Leite vs Hernan Casanova · ATP Challenger Antofagasta - Qualification Round 1
Model 23% vs Kalshi 12% midpoint: a 11-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Wilson Leite at 22%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 13% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.3 pts after the 1c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#4 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.3c)
12.5¢23.1¢+10.6¢
10:00 AMTennis
Leolia Jeanjean · Match winner
Leolia Jeanjean vs Lois Boisson · WTA 125K Adana - Final
Model 50% vs Kalshi 32% midpoint: a 17-pt gap, over the 10-pt tennis threshold; Elo also has Leolia Jeanjean at 50%.
Market-weighted estimate is only 35% (Kalshi has been more accurate than this model in 2026 tests): about -1.4 pts after the 2c fee
Tennis model has no settled live record yet (paper trading since 2026-10-02)
Not top-confidence: not in the tennis top 2 (#5 by market-weighted edge after fee, -1.4c)
32.5¢49.6¢+17.1¢
7:00 PMNHL
FLA ML · Moneyline
FLA @ ANA · NHL
Qualifies under the NHL underdog rule (tuned on 2022-25 walk-forward tests): model 51.9% vs 45.8% at the opening book line, +6.1 pts.
Not top-confidence: edge vs the current Kalshi price is only -3.6c (< 4c): the line has moved toward the pick
55.5¢51.9¢-3.6¢
1 lean(s) below the pick threshold
Time (CT)SportBetKalshiModel fairEdge
3:00 PMMLB
Milwaukee Brewers ML · Moneyline
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers · NLDS 'A' Game 2
Model 57.2% vs Kalshi 55.5% (de-vigged): +1.7 pts. Starters: Michael King vs Logan Henderson.
Lineups not posted yet: projected from recent games
Not top-confidence: edge 1.7c < 4c
55.5¢57.2¢+1.7¢